This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

We think Aaron Nola and the home side build off yesterday's come from behind 6-5 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey (0-2, 4.22 ERA), who was shelled for five runs off seven hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. Over his last three seasons Bailey has managed just 125.1 innings of work and in that time he's posted a poor 6.21 ERA. Nola (0-0, 2.61) comes in off a sub-par effort himself, allowing two runs off four hits and four walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Wednesday, also going on to strike out four. Nola should be feeling pretty confident here as he was 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year. Note that Cincinnati is just 31-45 the last two season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia is 15-9 (+2.7 units) in the same span as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Play on PHILADELPHIA.

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