This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phiilies.

We think that Pivetta and the Phillies could/should be bigger favorites in this particular matchup, swinging the value onto the home side. The Fish turn to Caleb Smith (0-0, 1.69 ERA), who gave up one run off four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Last year he had a 7.71 EAR over nine appearances with the Yanks. The home side turns to Nick Pivetta, who gave up three earned runs over four innings while striking out three and walking two in a 5-4 extra-innings victory over the Braves on Friday. Pivetta should settle down here and note that he was effective in this spot as a rookie last year as well by going 6-4 with a respectable 3.65 ERA in all "day" games. Additionally note that Miami is just 122-135 (-17.4 units) the last two seasons against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 41-38 (+21.2 units) against southpaws in the same time span. Lay the price, play on the PHILLIES.

AAA Sports