PREMIUM
10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF WEEK (RED HOT 13-5/72% ALL PICKS L5 DAYS!)
(NBA) Miami vs. Dallas,
Total: 196.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 196.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:
As note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 20 of its last 34 after playing to three consecutive UNDERs, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 19 non-conference games this season and in 17 of its last 31 after playing to three or more consecutive UNDERs.
The bottom line: These teams aren't known for their high-scoring ways, but after losing three straight, we don't have to question the Mavs motivation levels tonight. Clearly the home side will be eager to get back into the win column and as such, we're expecting it to get out and push the pace. The last thing Dallas wants to do is to slow this one down and play a lot of half court sets while on offense, as it's a pace that Miami would love to play at. With the Heat forced to match that pace, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the correct call in this one.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:
As note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 20 of its last 34 after playing to three consecutive UNDERs, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 19 non-conference games this season and in 17 of its last 31 after playing to three or more consecutive UNDERs.
The bottom line: These teams aren't known for their high-scoring ways, but after losing three straight, we don't have to question the Mavs motivation levels tonight. Clearly the home side will be eager to get back into the win column and as such, we're expecting it to get out and push the pace. The last thing Dallas wants to do is to slow this one down and play a lot of half court sets while on offense, as it's a pace that Miami would love to play at. With the Heat forced to match that pace, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the correct call in this one.
AAA Sports
