PREMIUM
Game Of The Month (NCAAF): AAA's Thursday Night 10* ESPN Total Of Month (210-174 +$21K NCAAF Run!)
(NCAAF) Cincinnati vs. Memphis,
Total: 66.50 | -100.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 66.50 | -100.00 Over
Result: Loss
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Cincinnati and Memphis.
If you've followed us for any length of time, you know that we're a situationally based handicapping service and while we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, for the most part the actual players have little to do with our process whatsoever. Unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or an Aaron Rodgers, it doesn't matter whatsoever to us who is on the playing field, we base our selections on situations, motivation, scheduling and lop-sided trends and numbers. While the Law of Averages is flawed in many ways, we've always felt that lopsided trends and numbers have a way of naturally "correcting" themselves, over the short, the mid and the long-term. This selection falls into one of our early systems as so far Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in all three games its played this season, while Memphis has also seen the total fly above the posted number in all three of its opening contests as well. Now, the only reason this play didn't wind up as a GAME OF THE YEAR, is because the last time these teams met in 2014 (a 41-14 victory for the Tigers), the total did indeed stay below the posted number. If the total in that Memphis victory last season had also flown above the number, we'd have pulled the trigger on a TOTAL OF THE YEAR selection, but as it stands, this play gets stamped with TOTAL OF THE MONTH status as we finally expect these teams to play to the lower number. Also note that Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 13 on the road, while Memphis has seen the total drop below the posted number in six of its last eight vs. teams with winning records. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move in this one.
AAA Sports
If you've followed us for any length of time, you know that we're a situationally based handicapping service and while we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, for the most part the actual players have little to do with our process whatsoever. Unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or an Aaron Rodgers, it doesn't matter whatsoever to us who is on the playing field, we base our selections on situations, motivation, scheduling and lop-sided trends and numbers. While the Law of Averages is flawed in many ways, we've always felt that lopsided trends and numbers have a way of naturally "correcting" themselves, over the short, the mid and the long-term. This selection falls into one of our early systems as so far Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in all three games its played this season, while Memphis has also seen the total fly above the posted number in all three of its opening contests as well. Now, the only reason this play didn't wind up as a GAME OF THE YEAR, is because the last time these teams met in 2014 (a 41-14 victory for the Tigers), the total did indeed stay below the posted number. If the total in that Memphis victory last season had also flown above the number, we'd have pulled the trigger on a TOTAL OF THE YEAR selection, but as it stands, this play gets stamped with TOTAL OF THE MONTH status as we finally expect these teams to play to the lower number. Also note that Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 13 on the road, while Memphis has seen the total drop below the posted number in six of its last eight vs. teams with winning records. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move in this one.
AAA Sports
