This is a 10* MW GOM on Boise State.

While I'm definitely NOT calling for an outright upset, I do think this spread is definitely MUCH too large, as I expect the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Boise State is 14-6 overall, including 3-1 on the road, while New Mexico is 18-3 overall, including 11-0 at home.

The Broncos are off a 90-84 OT home loss to Utah State as 2.5-point favorites, which is significant for us to take note of here, as Boise Stae is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite.

New Mexico is off five straight SU/ATS victories after its most recent 89-55 home win here over Nevada, but note that the Lobos are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

The bottom line here is that I feel this will be a competitive game and this home spread is absolutely inflated due to public perception.

As stated off the top, no outright upset, but definitely A LOT closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is BOISE STATE.

Good luck, NP