This is a 10* BK on the UNDER Avs/Flyers.

Here's a great situational play, as I'm expecting a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are anticipating.

Philadephia is now 8-8 after winning four of its last five and three straight. Despite seeing the total go OVER in its most recent 5-2 win over the Sabres, note that dating to last year the Flyers have still seen the total dip below the posted number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

With Eastern Conference heavyweight Carolina coming to town on Wednesday, will the home side get caught looking ahead?

The 9-9 Avs sure hope so. They just had their three-game win streak come to an end in a 5-2 loss at home to Washington. Note though that dating to last year the Avs have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off a home loss a -150 or larger favorite.

And, interestingly, the Avs also have a potential "look ahead" position here with a rematch in the Nation's capital on Thursday.

I say the conditions are right for a much slower-paced and ultimately lower-scoring affair here.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP