10* THUR. AAC TOTAL OF MONTH: 4-0/100% $URGE!
(NCAAF) Pirates (ECU) vs. Golden Hurricane (TSA),
Total: 61.50 | -112.00 Under
Result: Loss
This is a 10* AAC TOM on the UNDER ECU/Tulsa.

I base my picks on many different things. Sometimes I look at every single angle possible, including individual player matchups, coaching tendencies, trends and scheduling.

Other times I employ the "Keep It Simple Stupid," or KISS method. And that's the case here.

It's just a great overall "situational" play.

ECU is 5-4 and on the cusp of eligibility after back-to-back high-scoring wins. The Pirates have in fact seen the total go OVER in four straight, but note that despite the total eclipsing the posted number in last week's 49-14 home win over FAU, the Pirates have still seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Tulsa has its back against the wall after a 59-21 loss at UAB last time out. The Golden Hurricane are now 3-6 with three games remaining to move to .500. They have to run the table, which clearly isn't going to happen.

But with so much on the line here from each side, I say that everything from a situational stand point does indeed point to this being a lower-scoring defensive UNDER once its all said and done.

Good luck, NP