This is a 10* Atlantic Division GOY on the Leafs.

I always take into account where the public has put its money. Toronto will be a public favorite, but the NHL overall is simply not a "public" sport. And so I don't always take that into account in every circumstance and am not now.

This is a great price in my estimation, as I believe Toronto will take care of business here. As primarily a situational capper, these are exactly the types of games/situations that I keep my eyes open for. Tampa is 3-1, but off its first loss of the year, a 5-4 setback at Ottawa. With a game at New Jersey on Tuesday, I say the visitors not only have a letdown, but also get caught looking ahead.

The Leafs look to take advantage at home as they enter off a 4-1 loss here at home to the Rangers in a game that they were never really part of. In their only other loss this year, a 1-0 defeat at Montreal in their opener, the Leafs responded with a 4-2 win at New Jersey and then won three in a row overall.

Toronto is at lightweight Columbus tomorrow, so it can put its full focus on this contest. The last time these teams played was in their respective regular-season finales last year, and Tampa won 6-4.

Look for the LEAFS to respond here on Monday though in what I believe to be a very favorable spot.

Good luck, NP