This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Pats.

Here's a great situational play. I base most of my O/U picks (in every sport), on "situations."

Miami is 1-3 and in desperate need of a win after three straight losses. Last week it was a 31-12 setback at Tennessee.

New England is just 1-3 as well after three straight losses, most recently a 30-13 setback at San Francisco.

With each side pushing the pace like I'm suspecting to get back on track in this now crucial early divisional contest, everything points to these teams opening things up on offense and for the total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Tyler Huntley should be better this week for the Dolphins for sure. He has lots to work with on offense and will be more acclimated now.

The Pats had three costly turnovers last weekend. QB Jacob Brissett though has been given the green light here to try and maintain his starting role: “At this point, Jacoby is our starting quarterback,” NE head coach Jerod Mayo said. “I haven’t watched any film or anything like that. He’s been a great leader. ... We’ve got to watch the film. We’ve got a long flight to go back and watch the film and we’re always evaluating every single position.”

Look for these two desperate teams to fly well OVER this low number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP