This is a 10* BIG 12 GOY on TCU (moneyline.)

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my "wheelhouse." I base my picks on many different things, and this one sets up well from a situational standpoint.

The Golden Knights are 2-0, but they're off a 6-7 overall season. This is their second year in the Big 12 and I believe they're going to struggle in this difficult road venue.

UCF was picked to finish eighth in the conference's preseason poll, which isn't surprising considering the Knights had 40 new players this year.

Both of the Knights' wins have come at home though and while they've covered the spread in each, I say they're getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers in this spot.

TCU is also 2-0 SU, but it's 0-2 ATS. It's come close both times though, winning 34-27 at Stanford as a 7.5-point favorite, and then posting the 45-0 win over LIU here at home last weekend as a ridiculous 46-point fav.

The Horned Frogs though have combined for 79 points this season, while conceding just 27.

This is a difficult conference and both teams will be fighting for bowl eligibility throughout, but with back-to-back road games at SMU and KU after this, followed by the rest of the difficult Big 12 schedule, this becomes an almost "must-win" game for the Frogs.

UCF on the other hand has a week off before a home game vs. the struggling Colorado Buffaloes.

It's a letdown/look-ahead spot for the visitors in my estimation.

It's the Golden Knights who come into Week 3 untested. As I stated at the top, I for sure base my selections on many different things. Sometimes I look at every individual player matchup, break down every relevant stat possible, and take into account other external factors as well. This pick is a combination of a few of those strategies, but overall as I say it's a great situational play.

I'm going to bypass the spread option and instead play TCU on the MONEYLINE to win this game straight-up.

Good luck, NP