This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the Astros.

The Royals have now lost two straight and I think they'll struggle again here on Friday night in this difficult road venue.

Houston won 6-3 over Houston, and with that victory, the Royals are now in second in the AL Central, 1.5 games behind the Guardians.

The Astros lead the weak AL West, but I still think they offer great value in this particular matchup.

The Royals Seth Lugo (14-8, 3.19 ERA) and the Astros Framber Valdez (13-6, 3.27) sport similar seasonal numbers, but their recent form tells the real story here.

Lugo was shelled for six runs off a career-high 11 hits over five innings in an 11-3 loss to Philly on Sunday and over his last nine starts he's just 3-6 with ballooned 5.30 ERA (he's also just 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA across three career starts vs. Houston.)

Valdez is 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA at home.

Houston can smell the blood in the water here and I think is going to lay a good old fashioned beat down tonight.

Lay the price, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP