This is a 10* BIG TEN GOW on Northwestern.

Here's a great "situational" play. Am I predicting that the Wildcats will win this game outright?

I'm clearly not.

But do I think that at 4-0, PSU is a "little" overrated here by the oddsmakers and general betting public (more the public than the oddsmakers, who I believe are "leading" the "joes" here?)

I absolutely do!

I don't follow any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with your approach to each game and situation is the best way to make your selections.

That said, I'm primarily a contrarian at heart, and also a strong "situational" capper.

And to me, this one just sets up so well for the home dog.

PSU is riding high at 4-0 SU/ATS, including a 31-0 home win over Iowa last time out, but with a week off before a game at home vs. lowly UMass, not only does this set up as letdown spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead" position as well.

Add those two factors together and you get "trap game."

Northwestern is off the quality 37-34 OT win over Minnesota as an 11-point dog and I say it keeps that positive progression rolling here in a more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is NORTHWESTERN.

Good luck, NP