At 8 eastern in the BOCA Bowl Rob is backing South Florida plus the points at 8 eastern. The Bulls should have a nice home advantage here and Syracuse is in the Nasty 1-17 system that plays against Bowl favorites off a home win and a prior road dog loss if they scored 28 or more points and are taking on a team also off a home favored win. This system has the subset that is 0-14 in effect and looking at this game we see that the Orange are 0-6 vs Bowl teams getting our yarded by 230+ yards. They have failed to cover 9 of 12 vs AAC Conference opponents and South Florida has controlled the series winning 8 of the last 10. Based on the home crowd, the system and the indicators we will back the Bulls.

SU: 7-10-1
ATS: 1-17-0 (0-14 SUBSET in effect)

Dec 15, 1990 Saturday 17 1990 MARY LTCH neutral 34-34 -1.0 0 -1.0 P L
Dec 27, 1994 Tuesday 19 1994 ARZ UTAH neutral 13-16 -5.0 -3 -8.0 L L
Jan 01, 1999 Friday 19 1998 MICH ARK neutral 45-31 -3.0 14 11.0 W W
Dec 29, 1999 Wednesday 19 1999 KAST WAS neutral 24-20 -10.5 4 -6.5 W L
Dec 30, 1999 Thursday 19 1999 CLEM MSST neutral 7-17 -3.0 -10 -13.0 L L
Dec 23, 2006 Saturday 17 2006 NMX SJST home 0-0 3-13 0-7 9-0 12-20 -3.5 48.5 -8 -11.5 -16.5 -14.0 -2.5 L L U 0
Dec 29, 2006 Friday 18 2006 TXT MIN neutral 0-14 7-21 7-3 24-0 44-41 -6.5 66.0 3 -3.5 19.0 7.8 11.2 W L O 1
Jan 02, 2009 Friday 19 2008 TXT MIS neutral 14-7 7-17 0-14 13-9 34-47 -4.0 69.0 -13 -17.0 12.0 -2.5 14.5 L L O 0
Dec 31, 2010 Friday 18 2010 GEO CFL neutral 3-0 0-3 3-0 0-7 6-10 -6.5 53.5 -4 -10.5 -37.5 -24.0 -13.5 L L U 0
Jan 07, 2012 Saturday 19 2011 PIT SMU neutral 0-21 3-0 3-7 0-0 6-28 -4.0 46.5 -22 -26.0 -12.5 -19.2 6.8 L L U 0
Dec 17, 2016 Saturday 16 2016 NMX UTSA home 7-3 3-3 6-0 7-14 23-20 -8.0 54.0 3 -5.0 -11.0 -8.0 -3.0 W L U 0
Dec 20, 2017 Wednesday 17 2017 SMU LTCH neutral 3-21 7-21 0-6 0-3 10-51 -4.0 71.0 -41 -45.0 -10.0 -27.5 17.5 L L U 0
Dec 31, 2018 Monday 18 2018 CIN VTCH neutral 7-7 7-7 7-10 14-7 35-31 -5.0 54.0 4 -1.0 12.0 5.5 6.5 W L O 0
Dec 21, 2019 Saturday 17 2019 SMU FATL away 0-7 14-21 0-14 14-10 28-52 -3.5 70.0 -24 -27.5 10.0 -8.8 18.8 L L O 0
Dec 21, 2019 Saturday 17 2019 GSOU LIB neutral 0-7 7-9 6-7 3-0 16-23 -5.0 57.0 -7 -12.0 -18.0 -15.0 -3.0 L L U 0
Jan 02, 2021 box Saturday 18 2020 KTKY NCST neutral 3-0 10-0 0-7 10-14 23-21 -3.0 50.5 2 -1.0 -6.5 -3.8 -2.8 W L U 0
Dec 16, 2022 box Friday 16 2022 UAB MIAO neutral 10-0 0-6 0-7 14-7 24-20 -10.5 46.0 4 -6.5 -2.0 -4.2 2.2 W L U 0
Dec 30, 2022 box Friday 18 2022 NCST MARY neutral 3-3 6-7 0-3 3-3 12-16 -2.0 45.0 -4 -6.0 -17.0 -11.5 -5.5 L L U 0

Dec 21, 2023 box Thursday 17 2023 SYR SFL neutral -3.0 56.5