The NFL Play is on Tampa Bay at 1:00 eastern. Look for a big game here for Tampa after the injury riddled home favored shutout loss to the Saints last week. Brady gets Antonio Brown back and will have no problem running on a Carolina team ranked 20th in the league on rush defense. The Tampa Defense should feast on a Carolina team ranked 25th on offense and down two linemen. The Bucs are ranked #1 in scoring and #3 on rush defense and will likely create turnovers in this game with Newton back there. Tampa has covered all 3 after scoring 15 or less, 5 of 6 after accumulating 250 or less yards and 6 of 8 off a loss. Carolina has failed to cover 5 of 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record, 4 of 5 off a 14+ point loss and 8 of 9 Division home games. Tampa has covered 4 of 5 here. OK Now for the good stuff...... Defending Champs favored by more than 6.5 are undefeated off a shutout loss long term. Sunday road favorites at -9.5 or more off a home favored loss at -5 or more are 6-0 ats vs a team off a loss and win by 20 per game long term. One more. Home dogs of 7 or more like Carolina that are off a road dog loss a prior home favored loss, vs an opponent off a loss have not won or covered, again long term and lose by a 28-9 score. Look for Tampa to get back on track here. Then go NAIL our 31-1 Totals Play.