We are taking the DENVER BRONCOS here. I will be honest and say when this line first opened I liked NE here. But after a night of thinking about it, I realized the giant mistake that was. Look. I am not selling NE short. They took care of a good Indy team at home, while Denver didn't look dominant in their win over SD. But as I said when we backed the Chargers last week. SD plays Denver tough. They now have held the Broncos to under 30pts in all games this year and the only team to hold them under 400 yards. (All 3 times!) I had the Pats back when they pulled out an improbably victory back in November. Manning wasn't sharp, but Moreno rushed for over 200 yards. Brady did his thing with 340 yards. Even though I think NE is playing better, I think that win was a fluke. It was. Good teams don't blow 24-0 leads on a normal basis. For me. This is all about the Denver offense. I don't think that NE can stop them. They were in a great spot. I can't see the momentum carrying over here. The defense is one of the lesser units in the league. With the win over SD, I think Manning is more relaxed. Denver has a bit of pressure off of them here. Decker, Thomas and Welker should carve up a banged up unit. Pats have been using smoke and mirrors all season long. NE has 4 losses on the year, all on the road. At Jets, Miami, Cincy and Carolina. None of those guys have a QB or offense like Denver. Manning can trade shots all day and longer with Brady here. I think their defense comes up big, especially the way it went down vs Baltimore last year. They are going to be on the throttle all afternoon. They played down to a SD team that knows them well and still managed to win. If Brady had Gronk, this might be different. But I think in the end, the injuries to their defense will catch up to them, and the loaded offense of Denver will exploit that weakness. 8* SURE SHOT - DENVER BRONCOS