Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh's best starting pitcher. But he's been anything but an ace lately.

The Pirates have lost Keller's past five starts. Keller has surrendered 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings during this span. Keller's ERA in his last three games is 8.65.

Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has a 4.13 home ERA compared to 4.66 on the road.

More than the pitchers, this one comes down to price. Milwaukee is seven games above .500. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. The Brewers clearly are the better team. So the price is right to back Milwaukee, especially given Keller's poor current form.