Two top-10 offenses facing two below average defenses. Justin Herbert versus Trevor Lawrence. All of this had me strongly leaning to the Over. But what clinched the Over is finding out who is going to be refereeing this game. It's the Shawn Smith crew.

This is significant. This umpiring crew has ranked in the top-five for calling the most defensive penalties each of the last four seasons. They also called the second-fewest offensive holding penalties this season.

Herbert should come up big against the Jaguars, who rank 28th in pass defense and 24th in defensive total yards.

Lawrence should perform well, too, operating against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring defense and 20th in total defense. The Jaguars put up 38 points on the Chargers in Week 3 with Lawrence throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns.