Not much was expected of Duquesne this season after the Dukes finished 6-24, including 1-16 in the Atlantic-10, last season. The Dukes were picked last in the A-10 preseason poll.

But Duquesne has been a surprise going 12-4.

That record isn't so fancy, though, on closer inspection. The Dukes played an easy non-conference schedule. They've also played just two true road games, losing 77-52 to Kentucky and to Dayton, 69-57, in those away matchups.

The Dukes are mainly composed of five transfers and five freshmen. I find the Dukes vulnerable now that they are starting to play the better teams in the Atlantic-10, especially being on the road.

So I'm going with Richmond. The Spiders are 7-1 at home. They've covered six of their past seven games at Robins Center.

Richmond is 5-2 in its last seven overall games and will have the best player on the court in forward Tyler Burton, who has scored 20 or more points in five consecutive games.

The spread is low enough to back the Spiders.