Later in the season is the time to go Over in Rangers' games when Arlington becomes a strong hitter's park as the Texas humidity really kicks in. Now, though, Arlington is an overrated hitter's park with 13 of Texas' last 16 home games going under the total.

There's a slight wind blowing in for today's game, which is a rare early start for a Texas home game. That means batters could be affected by the sun being in their eyes.

The slated home plate umpire, D.J. Reyburn, has an under bias. The under has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the past three seasons spanning 54 games.

Of course the biggest factor is the starting pitching matchup. I feel confident Kendall Graveman and A.J. Griffin will hold up their ends.

Graveman is making his fourth start since coming off the DL. He was pitching well before going on the DL and has been slightly rusty since coming off. I see him pitching better here. He's given up fewer than three runs in three of his last four starts. Oddsmaker usually overprice the total on his starts. The under is 12-4 in Graveman's past 16 starts.

Griffin is pitching his best ball - because he's finally healthy. He's 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and will be highly motivated facing the team he started his career. Oakland ranks 25th in runs and batting so his task is far from daunting.