#813/814 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Michigan State vs Oregon, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU is one of the top defensive teams in the country (5th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Oregon is no slouch (30th nationally in defensive efficiency). Sparty has been great on defense all season long and the Ducks have upped their game on that end of the court over the last month. In fact, Oregon has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP including a Wisconsin offense that ranks 12th nationally averaging 1.23 PPP. In fact, since mid February the Ducks defense ranks 12th in the country in efficiency and MSU ranks 2nd. The Spartans have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 66 points or less including potent offensive teams Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois (all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency). Oregon has had 2 OT games over their last 7, however if we strictly look at regulation, they’ve also held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 68 points or less. These 2 met once this season and they total was set at 146 and despite the 2 teams going well Over the total hitting 160 total points, the total for this game is set lower. In that first meeting, there were 69 possessions which isn’t a lot, although we expect fewer today, MSU’s defense was terrible (very rare) in the first half allowing 50 total points to the Ducks, then held them to 24 in the 2nd half. Then Sparty put up 50 in the 2nd half after scoring just 36 in the first half. Both teams offensive efficiency was MUCH higher than these defenses normally allow, they combined to make 40% of their 45 three point attempts and they combined to make 40 FT’s. We don’t see either repeating that offensive performance against defenses playing at their peak right now in a tense, tournament format. Oregon is 50/50 on Over/Unders this season but MSU is 21-10 to the Under this season. Buckets will be tough to come by in this game. Let’s go Under.