#397 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - We think MSU is the better team despite records (Illinois is 6-3 & MSU is 4-5) so we’ll grab the points. MSU has a better YPP margin (+0.1 to -0.1) and YPG margin (+22 to -10) despite playing the tougher schedule (12th SOS for MSU & 45th for Illinois). Sparty is 4-5 on the season and they have plenty of motivation needing to win 2 of their last 3 games to be bowl eligible. 3 of their 5 losses have come vs OSU, Oregon, and Indiana who have a combined record of 28-1. Both are coming off a bye week but we give MSU the advantage in that spot giving the coaching edge to the Spartans Jonathan Smith. When Michigan State came off their first bye week back in early October, they rolled over a good Iowa team 32-20 and outgained them by almost 200 yards. When Illinois came off their first bye week in early October, they needed OT at home to get by a terrible Purdue team. The Illini have fallen off drastically since their 4-0 start going 2-3 their last 5 games and lucky to have those 2 wins to be honest. They beat an average Michigan team at home but needed 3 Wolverine turnovers (0 for Illinois) to do so as they were outplayed in the stat sheet in that game. They also nearly lost to Purdue, as we mentioned above, winning 50-49 in OT at HOME. The Boilers actually ran 17 fewer offensive snaps in that game but outgained the Illini on a YPP basis. That’s the same Purdue team that has already lost 6 games this season by 17 points or more. We like the Spartans to win this one so we’ll take the points.