#107 ASA PLAY ON Northern Illinois -117 over Western Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with WMU favored by 1 and has flipped to NIU as a small favorite. We agree with the move as the Huskies are the better team in this match up despite WMU having the better overall record (5-3 for WMU to 4-4 for NIU). Western Michigan sits a top the MAC with a perfect 4-0 record. However their wins have come vs Kent, Buffalo, Akron, and Ball State which are the 4 lowest rated teams in the MAC and all ranked 115th or lower nationally in most power ratings including ours. Northern Illinois is 1-3 in league play (yet favored on the road here vs an undefeated MAC team) but they have already played 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference beating Bowling Green and losing a tight game vs Toledo (13-6 final score) and they outgained the Rockets by more than 100 yards in that loss. Remember, this NIU team won @ Notre Dame earlier this year which is the only loss for the Irish. We’re getting a huge defensive edge with the Huskies here as they rank 7th nationally in total defense and 12th in YPP allowed while WMU ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. NIU is one of the top rushing teams in the nation (206 YPG rushing – 22nd nationally) and they should control the line of scrimmage here vs a Western Michigan stop unit that ranks 102nd defending the run. For the full season Northern has faced a slight better strength of schedule but still has a big advantage in key stats with a +122 YPG and +0.6 YPP compared to -22 YPG and +0.3 YPP for the Broncos. We’ll call for Northern Illinois to get the road win on Wednesday night.