ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC has won 13 straight games dating back to last season but only 3 of those have come by more than 8 points and their average YPG margin during that stretch is just +45. They are the king of winning close games and with this line sitting near double digits, we are on Tampa. The Bucs are 4-4 on the season yet they have a point differential of +22 and a YPP differential of +0.1. KC is undefeated yet their point differential is just +50 and their YPP differential is pretty comparable to TB at +0.3. KC’s offense has been pretty average this season (17th in YPP) which is why they haven’t been pulling away from teams. Mahomes ranks just 24th in QBR and he doesn’t have many high level weapons at his disposal this year. They are already missing RB Pacheco and WR’s Rice, Brown, Moore and now Shuster is most likely out for this game. Tampa has their offensive injury problems as well but they still put up 26 points on 432 yards last week vs Atlanta with their key WR’s out. The Bucs can score (4th in the NFL at 29.4 PPG) and they know how to keep drives alive with a 52.5% third down conversion rate (1st in the NFL). KC’s offense hasn’t topped 28 points the entire season and facing a team that can score will make it tough for them to win this one by double digits. Windy conditions are expected in KC Monday night which may favor the better running team. TB averages 5.1 YPC this season (6th) while KC is averaging only 3.9 YPC (29th). We’ll call for the Bucs to keep this one close. Take the points.