#306 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -4 over UL Lafayette, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas State is coming off an embarrassing effort @ ODU on October 19th losing 24-14 as a 10 points road chalk. They came into the game averaging 39 PPG (15th in the country) and they had scored at least 28 points in every game leading up to ODU. Just a terrible performance from a high level offense that may have been peaking ahead to this huge home match up vs ULL. That loss dropped the Bobcats to 4-3 on the season and this is a due or die game facing a Louisiana team that sits 1 game ahead of them in the Sun Belt West. Louisiana is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Sun Belt play but Texas State has a better overall and conference point differential despite having 1 loss in league play and 3 losses overall. If we subtract their games vs FCS opponents (they’ve each played one) 4 of ULL’s 5 wins have come by 10 points or less while Texas State’s 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by 39, 32 and 21 points. The Bobcats have played the slightly more difficult schedule yet have the better YPP differential and their defense ranks in the top 20 nationally allowing only 4.9 YPP. This is a game that Texas State already had tabbed as their most important game of the season months ago. Last year they lost @ Louisiana 34-30 but led by 9 points with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and blew it. They lost on the road in that one despite outgaining ULL by over 100 yards and only punted once in the game. We like Texas State to bounce back from last week’s disaster game and win this one by more than 4 points.