#135 ASA PLAY ON Northern Illinois +2.5 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We love looking at underdogs that have a chance to dominate on the ground and that’s what we have here. NIU ranks 10th nationally averaging 230 YPG on the ground on 5.1 YPC. They are facing a BG defense that allows over 200 YPG on the ground and ranks outside the top 115 in both YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. The Huskies rushing YPG differential is +113 while BG is -68 in that statistic. While BG has played the slightly higher strength of schedule, NIU’s is no slouch have played on the road at FBS opponents Notre Dame (NIU won by 2) and at NC State (NIU lost by 7 but outgained the Wolfpack by over 100 yards). The Falcons lost tough games @ Penn State and @ Texas A&M and those setbacks look like they’ve taken a lot out of this team as they haven’t been the same since. Two weeks ago those lost to a bad Old Dominion team as a double digit favorite and last week they barely got by at 1-5 Akron team (27-20) as a 16 point favorite. Those 2 teams have a combined record of 2-9 and Bowling Green was outgained on a YPP basis vs Akron and slightly outgained ODU. Not only should NIU control the trenches, they also have a much better overall defense ranking 11th in total defense and 19th in YPP allowed compared to 89th and 105th for the Falcon’s defense. NIU has a YPG differential of +100 and a YPP differential of +0.4. BG is +10 and dead even in those key stats. The better team is getting points here and we’ll grab the dog.