ASA top play on 10* UNDER 152.5 Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx Tues, 8 PM ET - We were on the Under in Game 4 and lost. It’s interesting that Game 4 goes Over the number by 20 points and the oddsmakers lowered the number for tonight’s game from 153.5 to 151.5. We are betting on a regression from the last two games and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. In Game 4 these two teams attempted just 126 field goals, well below the season average of 136. The Sun shot ridiculously well at 54% overall and 53% from Deep. Minnesota hit 47% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering these two teams are two of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. With this being an elimination game, we like both defenses to shine and the offenses to struggle. With another slower pace expected this game does not reach 150+.