#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -145 over La Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Interesting the team with the 1-5 record (MTSU) is favored over the team with the 3-4 record (LaTech). Hmmm. We actually have the Blue Raiders as a larger favorite in our power ratings (-4.5) so we feel there is value on the host here. MTSU has played the much tougher schedule already facing 2 SEC teams (Alabama & Mizzou) along with solid opponents Colorado State, Jacksonville State, and Western Kentucky. Despite their record MTSU’s YPG differential is dead even which tells us this team should be right around .500 rather than a 1 win team. They played toe to toe with Missouri on the road losing 23-19 and only getting outgained by 30 yards. The Raiders have outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents and in their most recent game, a home loss vs a 5-1 Jacksonville State team, they led 23-7 at half and outgained the Gamecocks 563 to 401. Four 2nd half turnovers, including a defensive TD for Jacksonville State, killed them in that game. They were actually favored by -3 in that game (same number in tonight’s game) vs a Gamecock team we have rated 3 points better than tonight’s opponent, La Tech. Speaking of the Bulldogs, they have played one of the weakest SOS’s in the country (130th) and their 3 wins have come vs FIU, Northwestern State, and UTEP. That’s an FCS team who has yet to win a game, and 2 FBS teams we have power rated in our bottom 10 teams in the country including one that had to play without their starting QB (UTEP). We were on La Tech at home last week vs an overvalued Western Kentucky team in what we felt was a great spot to grab them as a dog and while they game ended up 35-28, the Bulldogs were down 35-7 at half and allowed almost 7.0 YPP. Interestingly, Louisiana Tech was +6.5 in that game at home and just one week earlier MTSU traveled to Western Kentucky and the line was the same at +6.5. Based on those lines, that tells us this MTSU should be favored by around 6 points vs La Tech on a neutral field and we’re getting them a full FG less than that at home. The Bulldogs are on a short week (played last Thursday) and on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. MTSU has had an extra day to prepare (played last Wednesday) and is at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks including their 2nd of back to back home games. We like the Blue Raiders to win and cover at home.