#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +3 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time.