#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it.