#456 ASA FREE PLAY ON Chicago Bears +4.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Bears offense has been improving each week with their 3 highest yardage totals coming in their most recent 3 games. The last 2 weeks they’ve scored 33 vs New England and 29 vs Dallas, one solid defense and one top tier defense. Miami had to come from behind last week to beat Detroit by 4 points on the road and they are back in the Midwest for the 2nd straight week. The Fins were down 10 at half and battled back vs the worst defense in the NFL (Detroit) but their defense allowed the Lions to gain 6.9 YPP. They allowed 27 points to a Detroit offense that had scored only 6 total points their previous 2 games. We like Chicago to have success offensively here. Miami has won a number of close games with 4 of their 5 wins coming by 6 points or fewer so getting a full 5 points here we see some value with Chicago. The Bears are 2-1 at home this year beating San Francisco & Houston, with their lone loss at Soldier Field coming vs a surging Washington team 12-7 in a game Chicago outgained them by 177 yards! The weather should favor the home team as 20 MPH winds are expected. Chicago runs the ball more than any team in the NFL (60% of the time) and they average 188 YPG on the ground which is 1st in the league. Miami can’t run. They average just 88 YPG and rely heavily on their passing game which could be a problem in windy conditions. The Chicago defense also ranks 5th in the NFL vs the pass so not a great match up for Miami if they do stick to their passing game plan. Too many points here as we expect this one to be tight.