#392 ASA FREE PLAY ON UL Lafayette +4.5 over Troy, Saturday 5 PM ET - We think we’re getting some solid value here with the home dog. Last year ULL was favored by -6.5 AT Troy and now this year they are getting +4.5 at home. So technically we’re talking about at least a 17 point swing in one year if we factor in home field advantage. That’s too much. ULL is coming off a loss which helped this line, however it was a deceiving loss @ Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles won 39-24 vs ULL who was favored by -2.5 on the road in that game. The Ragin Cajuns outgained USM by 100 yards in that loss but had 4 turnovers and the Eagles had a defensive TD and a safety in the game. Prior to that loss ULL was coming off back to back double digit wins vs Arkansas State and Marshall. At home this season the Cajuns are 3-1 with their only loss coming by 3 points vs a South Alabama who we have rated dead even with Troy. The Trojans are on a nice 5 game winning streak, however they struggle offensively at times (76th in total offense and 120th in rushing) so they often win close games when they do win. In that 5 game winning streak they have scored 17 points or fewer 3 times and 4 of those 5 winning margins were single digits. If we throw out Troy’s game vs FCS Alabama A&M their average score this season is 20.2 – 17.7 so only +2.5 PPG. ULL has an extremely strong home field advantage winning 22 of their last 25 as a host dating back to the 2018 season. Troy hasn’t laid points on the road in this series since 2011 and we feel the Cajuns have a solid shot at the upset here. Take the points.