#151/152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 54 Points – Old Dominion vs Georgia State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We have this total set closer to 60 points and feel there is some solid value on the Over in this one. The Old Dominion offense is humming right now but this total doesn’t suggest that. This total seems to be set based on their year long numbers rather than their recent run. After averaging 18 PPG through their first 3 games of the season, ODU has put up an average of 31 PPG over their last 4 games. They are averaging 433 YPG during that 4 game stretch which would place them 35th nationally in total offense if we were to use those 4 games only. However, because of their early season struggles, they rank 72nd in total offense. It’s also possible this total is set lower than it should be in our opinion based on ODU’s game last week vs the high scoring Georgia Southern Eagles. The 2 teams combined to score 51 points despite the total being set at 66. That result was very misleading as the 2 teams combined for 861 total yards on 6.1 yards per play. There were 20 offensive possessions in that game and only 4 punts. In that game the 2 teams combined for 3 missed FG’s and 4 times they were shut out on downs. The Georgia State offense has been solid all year. They are averaging 28 PPG and that includes a 14 point performance vs South Carolina to open the season. Five of their last six totals have been set at 60+ points and the only won that was not was their game vs Army (was set at 54) and the Cadets run the ball 55 times per game and are one of the slowest paced teams in the country. That game was the only Georgia State game that landed below 59 points in their last 6 outings. Both offenses will have success here. The defenses are bad ranking 114th and 116th nationally (out of 131) in total defense. Unlike their game vs Army, ODU is a fast paced team ranking 20th in seconds per play and Georgia State ranks 10th in that category. With the spread set a GSU -3 the expected outcome of this game is 29-26. We like both teams to top their expected team total and wouldn’t be surprised of both got to 30 in this one. Over is the play.