#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This line opened 41 and has dropped to 39.5. Not enough in our opinion. How many points is Carolina going to score in this game? They just traded away their 2 top offensive weapons – RB McCaffrey and WR Anderson – and they’ll be starting 3rd string QB PJ Walker again this week. Last Sunday they scored only 3 points offensively as their lone TD came on an interception. McCaffrey accounted for 158 of their 203 total yards and he is now in San Francisco playing for the Niners. Starting QB Walker has completed only 57% of his passes in his NFL career and last week he threw for 60 yards vs the Rams. He’s now facing a TB defense that ranks 7th in pass defense and opponents are averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (5th best in the NFL). The Panthers have scored a total of 63 points over their last 4 games for an average of 15.7 PPG. However, they have also scored THREE defensive TD’s during that stretch so their offense is actually averaging a paltry 10 PPG and they are in far worse shape offensively right now than they were for any of those 4 games. So why not just lay 13 points with Tampa Bay in this game? We don’t trust their offense. Last week vs a Pittsburgh team that was without many of their key players in the secondary, the Bucs could only score 18 points. They have been held to 21 points in every game but one this season and they can’t run the ball (last in the NFL at 67 YPG). Carolina’s strength has been their pass defense allowing 223 YPG on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa offense ranks 21st in YPG and PPG despite playing 4 defenses ranked 15th or worse including 2 ranked 27th (TB scored 21) and 29th (TB scored 18). Tampa probably has to get to 30+ to give this game a chance at going Over the total and we just don’t see that happening. We go Under here.