#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians +150 over NY Yankees, Tuesday at 4:05 PM ET - Game 5 with the winner moving on to face Houston in the ALCS. We like the value here with Cleveland and Civale on the mound. He has pitched very well down the stretch allowing 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Over his last 10 starts, he’s allowing just 1.9 ER’s per 5 innings pitched. While Civale’s ERA is 4.92, he’s pitched better than that with an xERA of 3.80 and an xFIP of 3.62. Yesterday the NY starter was scheduled to be Taillon and we really liked that match up for Cleveland. Now that Cortes will start, we still think the Guardians have some advantages. First he will be starting a very short 3 days rest after throwing 92 pitches. Cortes has only done that once in his career and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in just 2.1 innings. Second, Cleveland has some decent success vs Cortes a few days ago with 9 baserunners in just 5 innings but they were only able to come up with 2 runs. After struggling at the plate but still getting the 2 game sweep of TB in their wildcard series, Cleveland has been the better offensive team here with 14 more hits so far in the first 4 games. They’ve outhit the Yankees in 3 of the 4 games with yesterday’s game ending with each team having 6 hits. NY is hitting just .177 in this series and we don’t see them breaking out tonight. The bullpens are nearly even with a slight edge on the season to Cleveland with a better ERA and WHIP. As of late the Cleveland relievers have been nearly unhittable with an ERA of 0.74 through the last 5 games and 1.73 over the last 10. There is an outside chance that Bieber will start this game for Cleveland and we’re still on board with that. He’ll be coming off 3 days rest similar to Cortes (discussed above) and at that point we’d call starters even (short rest & similar stats) but we like the way the Cleveland bullpen and hitters are performing more so than the Yankees. The Guardians have won their last 8 games following a loss and the value is on Cleveland here at +150.