#925 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians +135 over NY Yankees, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Game 5 with the winner moving on to face Houston in the ALCS. We like the value here with Cleveland and Civale on the mound. He has pitched very well down the stretch allowing 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Over his last 10 starts, he’s allowing just 1.9 ER’s per 5 innings pitched. While Civale’s ERA is 4.92, he’s pitched better than that with an xERA of 3.80 and an xFIP of 3.62. We think Cleveland will have an edge early in the game facing Yankee starter Taillon who made one appearance out of the bullpen in this series and gave up 3 hits and 2 ER’s without recording a single out. Prior to that appearance, Taillon had been trending downward giving up 13 ER’s in his previous 5 starts and over his last 10 starts he’s allowed an average of 2.3 ER’s in 4.2 innings pitched per start. After struggling at the plate but still getting the 2 game sweep of TB in their wildcard series, Cleveland has been the better offensive team here with 14 more hits so far in the first 4 games. They’ve outhit the Yankees in 3 of the 4 games with yesterday’s game ending with each team having 6 hits. NY is hitting just .177 in this series and we don’t see them breaking out tonight. The bullpens are nearly even with a slight edge on the season to Cleveland with a better ERA and WHIP. As of late the Cleveland relievers have been nearly unhittable with an ERA of 0.74 through the last 5 games and 1.73 over the last 10. We like the Guardians to have an early advantage here based on the starting pitchers and grab a lead then handing it off to a top notch bullpen. The Guardians have won their last 8 games following a loss and the value is on Cleveland here at +135.