#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54 Points – LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC scored 44 points by themselves last week vs a really banged up Arizona defense so many will be rushing to bet this Over based on that result alone. We think there is value on the Under in this one. A division game on a short week would lend itself to the Under when the total is set this high. Thursday night NFL totals set higher than 51 have gone Under the total at a 68% rate lifetime. Being division rivals, these 2 teams know each other very well. Last year they totaled 54 and 62 points although the 2nd game was in OT. However, a closer look reveals both games were looking like sure Unders but both teams piled on points late in each game. In the 2 games combined these two rolled up 31 total points with less than 2:30 remaining in regulation (and OT). That means that 27% of the scoring in those 2 games came with less than 2:30 left in the contest. While many will focus on the offensive numbers from last week we were impressed with both defenses. KC held a very potent Arizona offense to just 282 total yards on 4.5 YPP. The Cards had only 7 points entering the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach. The Chargers defense held an upgraded Las Vegas offense (added WR Adams) to 19 points on 320 total yards. The LA offense was far from spectacular with 24 points on 355 total yards. Thus, three of the four units in this game (LA offense, LA defense, and KC defense) have us looking Under this week and we don’t expect the KC offense to put up nearly 500 yards and 44 points again this week vs a much better defense (and healthier defense). Under is the play in the AFC West game.