ASA play on 8* New England Patriots +3.5 over Miami Dolphins, 1 PM ET - It seems most experts are writing off the Patriots with their coordinator changes but the man in charge, Bill Belichick, is still calling the shots. Belichick is at another level when he has time to prepare for an opponent. This season opener has added incentives considering it’s an AFC Easts showdown AND they lost to the Dolphins twice last season. Miami added some offensive weapons this season, the biggest of course is WR Hill from Kansas City. But the fact remains Tua Tagovailoa is a below average QB with the 18th worst QBR last season and a 16 TD to 10 INT ratio in 2021. In comparison rookie Mac Jones was 16th in QBR with 22 TDs/13 INTs which are solid considering it was his first year under center. New England owned the 9th most efficient offense compared to the Dolphins 24th ranked unit a year ago. The Patriots also had the advantage defensively with the 4th best DVOA numbers versus the Dolphins who were 10th. The points are very attractive here as Miami was 9-8 SU last year yet had an average Margin of Victory of minus -1.9PPG. New England had the 4th best average Margin of Victory a year ago at +7.2PPG. Last year on this field the Pats were favored by 6-points on this field in January so it’s obvious the over-reaction by the public and oddsmakers to have Miami favored by more than a FG here. In the two meetings last year the Pats outgained the Fish by 215 total yards yet lost both. Payback here!