ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - These two teams pounded out 22 hits yesterday but only produced 8 runs. Our analytics suggest that both teams will have similar results at the plate today, but the run production will be higher. In each team's last ten games the combined total runs scored has been 9.10 for the Reds and 9.40 for the Cubs. Chicago has struggled to score runs lately but did put up 9 in the first game of this series. Chicago should put up solid offensive numbers here against the Reds starting pitcher Luis Cessa who has a 5.18 ERA and 5.47 FIP. Cessa has mainly been a reliever this year but has started three straight games while allowing 11 hits and 3 earned runs in 11 total innings. The Cubs are also a better hitting team against right-handed pitchers with a .241 team average and 6.5 runs per game on the season. The Reds run production is up in their last five games at 5.4 and they should put up plenty of runs against the Cubs starter Sampson early on. Sampson is 1-5 on the season with a 3.95 ERA and an expected XERA of 4.47. He has allowed 8 earned runs, 17 hits in his last 11.2 innings of work. The Reds also hit right-handed pitchers well with a .250 team average in their last ten games and a 5.6 runs per game average. Lastly, this will be a high bullpen usage game and both bullpens are atrocious. Cincinnati has the worst ERA of any bullpen in baseball and the Cubs are 24th. Bet the OVER here.