#405/406 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 – New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The first week of the NFL preseason saw 14 of the 17 games (including the HOF game) go Over the Total. The average total set by the oddsmakers last week was 34.8 and after last week’s scoring (games averaged 43 total points) the average total set this week is right around 40 which is where this game sits. The Packers total last week vs San Francisco was set at 34.5 and the Saints total vs Houston was 35. This is an over adjustment in our opinion and we think there is some value on the Under in this game. Neither starting QB will take the field in this one and both defenses look like they are ahead of the offenses right now. The Saints defense held Houston to 275 total yards and 17 points last week. One of those TD’s came on a 47 yard drive after a New Orleans turnover and the other came with 25 seconds remaining in the game. The Saints offense only averaged 3.9 YPP in that game (only scored 13 points) vs a Houston defense that finished 31st in YPP defense a year ago. The Niners scored 28 points but had only 328 total yards in their home game vs GB last week. SF was put in favorable field position throughout the game due to 3 Packer turnovers and 3 of their 5 scores came on drives of 39 yards or less. These 2 have been facing off in practice this week and our word is the defenses have dominated. These two defenses should be among the best in the NFL this year and we look for the offenses to struggle in this game. Under is our recommendation.