#957 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -107 over San Diego, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are not in an ideal situation here having played a doubleheader yesterday in Cleveland. After their 6-5 loss in game 2 @ Cleveland yesterday, San Diego made the long trek home and now must play a game just over 24 hours after their 2nd game of the DH ended yesterday. Not only that, it was the end of a long 8 game road trip for San Diego so they’ve been traveling a lot. Their bullpen could be rather thin tonight after using 8 different relief pitchers in yesterday’s 2 games. The Padres are on a very nice 11-4 run overall but let’s keep in mind over half of those wins (6) have come vs the Reds who are 3-21 on the season. The only team San Diego has beaten during this stretch that currently has a winning record was a 3-2 extra inning win vs the Dodgers, otherwise all 10 of their other wins have come vs teams with losing records. Miami is coming off a tough home series getting swept by suddenly red hot Arizona (7-2 last 9 games). All 3 of those losses for the Marlins came by a single run and prior to those losses they had won 7 of their previous 8 games. We spoke of San Diego’s tough travel spot and while Miami is also traveling, this will be their first road game since April 28th so they are in a much better situation. The Marlins have Luzardo on the hill who has been fantastic in 3 of his 4 starts this season. If we throw out his poor start vs St Louis back in mid April, Luzardo has allowed just 3 ER’s in 16 innings with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 16 innings. His ERA on the season is a very good 3.10 but he’s pitched better than that with a xERA of 2.38 and an xFIP of just 2.69. San Diego’s starter tonight (Martinez) is the direct opposite with his numbers sitting much better than they should actually be. Martinez has an OK ERA of 4.12 but an xERA of 6.64 and an xFIP of 4.69. Miami also has an edge in most key bullpen categories. At basically even money, we like the Marlins here.