#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints -115 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Jags QB Lawrence has a banged up knee and may not play in this game. They just moved QB Nathan Rourke up from the practice squad so he is available on Thursday night. That might be a sign that Lawrence may not play or at the very least is not close to 100%. Either way we like this spot for the host Saints. The Jags are in a terrible situational spot for this game. They spent 2 weeks in London, came back and played the following Sunday at home vs Indy and now are on the road again on a short week. Many of the Jacksonville players were commenting on how tough it was physically to come back from a longer than normal stint in London and have to play right away the following weekend. How are they going to feel now away from home on a short week coming right after that? The Jags are overvalued right now in our mind. They won both games on London but were outgained in both on a YPP basis 5.0 to 4.7 vs the Falcons and 7.2 to 5.8 vs the Bills. The same thing happened last week as they were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP vs the Colts and won. Turnovers have been key as the Jaguars have a +6 TO margin in those 3 games alone. They have a takeaway on 20.3% of their opponents possessions this year which is 2nd in the NFL. Can that continue? It’s going to be tough to keep up that pace on turnovers which has helped them immensely this season. The Saints are coming off a loss @ Houston in a game they outplayed the Texans soundly. New Orleans put up 430 total yards in the loss to just 297 for Houston. Mistakes were the difference in that one as the Saints missed 2 FG’s, were shut out on downs at the Houston 15 yard line, and threw an interception at the Houston 24 yard line. The Jags offense has been held under 5.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games and they are possibly without their QB facing a New Orleans defense that allows only 4.6 YPP (4th best in the NFL). For the season, New Orleans are 3-3 with a YPP differential of +0.04 (14th in the NFL) and a point differential of +13. Jacksonville is 4-2 yet their YPP differential is -0.75 which is 26th in the NFL with a point differential of +20. The Saints are sitting right about where we’d expect with those numbers while Jacksonville is vastly overvalued as we stated earlier. Lay the small money line price with New Orleans at home.