ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 PM ET - This line opened 51 at some books and was quickly bet down to the current number. We will grab that added value and side with the Bookmakers number in this AFC West rivalry. Let’s start with the Broncos defense that has the worst statistical DVOA numbers in the HISTORY of the NFL. The Bronco give up over 450YPG (32nd), 7.2YPP (32nd), 187RYPG (30th) and 5.9-yards per rush (32nd). They allow opposing QB’s to complete 77.3% of their pass attempts, also last in the NFL, and give up 11.1 yards per competition. Now consider this. Those horrific overall numbers, but specifically passing stats come against four of five bad QB’s in: Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garappolo. Now they face Patrick Mahomes who is arguably the best QB in the game and a guy building a Hall of Fame resume. KC owns a top ranked offense in many statistical categories including: Yards Per Game, Yards Per Play, Rushing Yards per attempt etc… The Chiefs are averaging 25.6PPG, while the Broncos are allowing 36.2PPG. The Broncos are allowing 1 point scored per every 12.4 yards gained by opponents. Based on the fact KC averages 381YPG that translates to 30.7 points for the Chiefs. Denver is going to score here too. They average 328YPG but more importantly, 6.1YPP which rates 5th best in the NFL. They average 4.9 Yards per rush (4th) and are 13th in overall passing yards per game. They own the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.2PPG and rank 7th best in Yards Per Point at 13.0. Last season these two teams combined for 51 and 64 total points in the two meetings. Bet this number before the line trends back up.