PREMIUM
CFB SEC Game of the Year
(NCAAF) Arkansas vs. Auburn,
Point Spread: -13.50 | -117.00 Auburn (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -13.50 | -117.00 Auburn (Home)
Result: Loss
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET
Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal.
Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal.
