NFL Best Bet - Broncos vs Bills
(NFL) Broncos (DEN) vs. Bills (BUF),
Point Spread: -8.50 | -110.00 Bills (BUF) (Home)
Result: Win
This is a bad matchup for a good Denver defense that does two things in particular very well. First, they play very good man defense and have a top shutdown cornerback in Patrick Surtain II. They play the 2nd-most man coverage in the league and that is great for Josh Allen, who has thrown 22 of his 28 YD passes against man defenses. The other problem with man coverage against Allen is that the defensive backfield will have their backs turned if and when he decides to scramble, allowing him to get well upfield before first contact. The other area where the Broncos excel is their pass rush. But no quarterback has a lower rate of getting sacked than Allen. The average quarterback sees his QBR decline by nearly 34 points when pressured. Allen's QBR is more than 12 points better when he's under duress. He finished with the highest QBR under pressure in a season since ESPN began tracking the metric in 2009 (85.3). Congrats to Bo Nix and the Broncos for making it this far. Unfortunately, their playoff run ends today.