The Lopes have been a great story the last couple of seasons, making the tournament twice and even knocking off 5-seed St Mary’s last year in the first round. But this year they’ve been overvalued by the betting markets, failing to cover two double-digit spreads and then losing by 11 to Arizona St as 6-point chalk. The Aggies have gone just 1-2 on the season but have beat the number twice and failed to cover against Stanford by a single point. They are a team that likes to push the pace but does a great job on defense, especially against the 3. GC will likely get the win but UCD will be able to stay within shouting distance.