I'm going with the home favorite here, as Tampa Bay has won three of their last four meetings against Boston and the Bruins are not nearly as good on the road with an 8-11-2 record away from home. The Lightning are 12-6-1 at home and they are long overdue for an offensive showcase. Swayman and Korpisalo have surrendered a 3.20 GAA and a save percentage below 90% in their last five games and at this point I trust Vasilevskiy more than I do either goalie for the Bruins. Tampa Bay has given up two goals or less in three of their last four games and Boston has an average of 4.00 goals against per game in their last five contests.