This total is too low. These teams may be very slow-tempo, but the number has been set so low that there is barely any room for a wager on the under.

I'm bullish on Tennessee and believe they will pull off the upset, which leads me to side with the over. UT ranks 28th in near-proximity shooting percentage and has an advantage on the offensive boards. The Vols rank 26th in second-chance conversion rate off offensive rebounds and figure to get to the free-throw line often (19th in FT attempt rate). Better yet, Tennessee ranks 17th nationally in offensive momentum, and Houston ranks 196th in defensive momentum, per Haslametrics.

As for the Cougars, they lead the nation in three-point percentage (39.8%). While they don't attempt a ton of them, they could be forced to take more than usual if they're playing from behind. Tennessee also allows plenty of looks from long range (292nd in opponent 3PT attempt rate). Like Houston, the Volunteers lack defensive momentum (235th), too.