-150 is too much juice, even for Paul Skenes. I'll bet the Pirates run line at -1 to cover my downside risk and still give me the chance to win at almost even odds if Pittsburgh wins by more than one run.

I believe they will win by two or more runs, as Skenes should be able to outlast Sandy Alcantara, as the latter didn't pitch at all last season and topped out at 57 pitches in Spring Training. The Pirates' budding superstar stretched out to 85 pitches on March 17 and can go six-plus frames, while Alcantara likely won't last past the fifth. That gives an advantage to Pittsburgh, who will get extra ABs against Miami's weak bullpen. The Pirates' lineup is stronger than the Fins, too.