Was the Razorbacks' run to the Sweet 16 more about their competition than their performances? After beating an offensively challenged Kansas team in their opener, they took down a poor-shooting St. John's squad in the Round of 32 to advance. Now, they will face their first true test: Texas Tech.

Unlike the Johnnies, the Red Raiders can match up with the Hogs' athleticism and size. TTU's interior presence is no joke, and the Red Raiders should be due for positive shooting regression from long range (37.1%) after shooting 13-for-46 versus UNC Wilmington and 2-for-14 against Drake. They are a strict Rim-and-3 team, focusing on layups/dunks or threes. The Razorbacks rank 250th in average opponent near-proximity attempt rate, and with the Red Raiders comfortable probing the defense and spacing them out for the best looks, Arkansas looks to be in trouble.

Given how efficient Texas Tech's offense is, the Hogs' offense is likely to be inbounding the ball more than they prefer. Without transition scoring opportunities, Arkansas' offense isn't special and lacks game plan consistency from contest to contest. Texas Tech will challenge the Razorbacks at the rim (40th in near-proximity shots allowed and 59th in opponent NP shooting percentage), and Arkansas isn't much of a threat from beyond the arc (32.4% this season and 8-for-43 during the tourney).

I don't anticipate the Hogs shooting the basketball well enough to win or cover the spread against the Red Raiders. Bet TTU -5.5!