The Musketeers have won eight of their last nine, picking up serious momentum. They solidified that with their comeback win against Texas on Wednesday. They get to the free-throw line a lot (62nd in FT attempt rate) and shoot about 80% there. They're also top-ten nationally in 3PT% this season, hitting 40% of their threes since February 1.

The Illini have the talent, but they've been inconsistent (359th in consistency, per Haslametrics) and lack momentum following their beatdown loss to Maryland in the B1G tourney. Defense has been a major concern, as the Illini have a defensive rating of 106.2 since February (outside of the top 150 during that stretch), ranking 359th in 3PT% defense (41.7%).

I don't trust Illinois and believe the best bet is to back the Musketeers on the moneyline at plus odds.